YEREVAN, Armenia — A peace deal signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been met with both hope and skepticism. Many question whether true peace can be achieved while the fate of more than 100,000 displaced ethnic Armenians remains unresolved. The agreement, brokered by the United States, signals a new era of diplomacy but has left a gaping hole for a population still reeling from loss and uncertainty.
Unresolved Issues Cast a Shadow Over the Deal
The U.S.-brokered agreement has been hailed as a diplomatic triumph, but its details have raised alarm bells. A central critique is the deal’s failure to include a mechanism for the “right of return” for the displaced population. While Azerbaijan has claimed it would welcome back those who wish to return, it has offered no enforceable guarantees for their safety and rights.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has previously ordered Azerbaijan to ensure the “safe, unhindered, and expeditious return” of displaced Armenians, but such rulings lack enforcement power, leaving the displaced in a state of limbo.
The deal’s proposed “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” intended to connect Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, also carries deep-seated concerns. Many in Armenia fear this route could threaten national sovereignty, particularly since its legal status and security arrangements remain ambiguous. This has created a sense of unease.
Humanitarian Crisis Continues for Displaced Families
The human cost of the conflict remains a pressing issue. Reports from humanitarian organizations confirm that over 100,000 ethnic Armenians, including many women and children, were displaced in a matter of days following the 2023 offensive.
Data from the UNHCR’s Operational Data Portal indicates that as of May 2024, over 115,257 refugees had fled to Armenia, many requiring urgent humanitarian aid.
The European Union has provided more than €38 million in humanitarian assistance since 2020. This aid offers critical support for food, shelter, and medical care. Despite this aid, the crisis is ongoing.
A survey conducted in late June 2025 by the International Republican Institute (IRI) found that while 47% of respondents in Armenia support a peace deal, there is deep-seated opposition, with 33% strongly opposing it. This highlights the nation’s profound and painful division over the terms of peace.
A Path Forward Still Unclear
While the deal promises economic benefits, its long-term success hinges on its ability to evolve beyond a simple diplomatic victory. For peace to be lasting, it must be inclusive and address the painful realities on the ground. The fate of the displaced Armenians, their right to a safe return, and the sovereignty of the transit corridor are all critical issues that remain unresolved.
Without a transparent process for reconciliation and strong, enforceable guarantees, this peace agreement may simply be a truce, leaving the region’s most vulnerable population with more questions than answers.