In a dramatic political turn in Hungary, the opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, has overtaken Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party in public support. A recent poll from the IDEA Institute, conducted between November 29 and December 6, 2024, reveals that the Tisza Party has gained 33% support, while Fidesz has fallen behind with 27%.
For nearly two decades, Fidesz has been the dominant force in Hungary’s politics. The last time Orbán’s party faced a real challenge was back in 2006 when it was defeated by the Socialist Party under Ferenc Gyurcsány. Now, for the first time, Fidesz is trailing in public opinion polls, with a significant drop in support.
The IDEA Institute’s poll also reveals that among likely voters, Tisza’s support climbs to 45%, compared to Fidesz’s 36%. The far-right Our Homeland party stands at 7%, while Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition hits 5%, the minimum required to make it into parliament. The proportion of undecided voters has dropped sharply, from 37% in late 2024 to 26% in January 2025.
The shift in sentiment is being attributed to the Tisza Party’s strong anti-corruption platform and relentless criticism of Orbán’s rule. Péter Magyar has focused on rebuilding Hungary’s relations with the European Union and NATO while taking a more pragmatic approach to Russia.
However, the road ahead is still uncertain. The political battle is far from over, and Orbán will not go down easily. “Don’t relax until you have a new leader in place,” says one observer, expressing a sense of caution. Orbán’s loyalists will undoubtedly pull every trick to hold on to power. As the actual election campaign ramps up, expect a barrage of lies, propaganda, and harassment aimed at Tisza members, says another. Orbán’s loyalist network will likely manipulate the police and justice system, prevent Tisza from receiving media coverage, and rely on Russian-backed social media campaigns. Many fear that by election day, the result will be far too close for comfort.
And just as tensions rise, today, 260 schools across Hungary received bomb threats from an anonymous source claiming to be a “follower from Allah, who will spill the blood of innocents on the streets.” This act raises suspicions of political manipulation, with some arguing that it could be a convenient distraction for Orbán’s government to portray itself as the strong protector of the nation. While this is all speculation, it speaks to the volatile and unpredictable environment Orbán thrives in.
Despite this, many believe Orbán’s support should continue to plummet. “His support should hit rock bottom and start digging,” says one. The hope is that Hungary is nearing the end of its “dark ages,” with the prospect of a new government under Tisza. But the big question remains: “Will Orbán step aside and not pull any underhanded moves if he loses?”
As Hungary heads into the 2026 election, all eyes will be on Orbán’s next moves and the extent to which he will go to stay in power. The future of the nation hangs in the balance.