Europe’s security landscape is evolving rapidly, and the role of nuclear weapons in maintaining stability is being questioned. The traditional reliance on the United States for nuclear deterrence is no longer seen as guaranteed. With the re-election of Donald Trump in 2024, the reliability of American security commitments to European nations has been thrown into doubt. As a result, European countries are now actively discussing how to bolster their own nuclear capabilities. Belgium is calling for increased European investment in nuclear deterrence, while Scandinavian countries are exploring joint nuclear initiatives with Poland and the Baltic states. This shift marks a significant departure from Europe’s historical commitment to non-proliferation, raising key questions about the future of nuclear weapons in the region.
For the Netherlands, this situation is particularly challenging. The country has long been a key NATO member, relying on American nuclear weapons stationed on its soil as part of a shared deterrent strategy. However, as confidence in U.S. protection wanes, the Netherlands faces mounting pressure to consider its own nuclear capacity. The country possesses considerable scientific and technological expertise, which could support nuclear development, but this path also comes with substantial challenges—both technical and diplomatic. The real question is whether the Netherlands should strive for nuclear autonomy or, given its size and geopolitical context, pursue a more pragmatic approach by collaborating with neighboring European countries.
Shifting geopolitical dynamics in Europe
Europe’s security environment has been transformed in recent years. The rise of Russian aggression, coupled with the increasing unpredictability of transatlantic relations, has forced European nations to reconsider their defense strategies. With U.S. security guarantees now in question, many countries are looking for ways to ensure their own protection. Prime Minister Bart De Wever of Belgium has called for a more robust European nuclear strategy, warning that relying solely on France’s nuclear umbrella may no longer be enough. Other European nations, including Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states, are contemplating the development of independent nuclear deterrents in response to Russia’s growing influence and the instability of the European landscape. What was once a fringe idea is quickly becoming a practical necessity for Europe’s long-term security.
For the Netherlands, this shifting geopolitical reality presents a major dilemma. Although the country doesn’t have its own nuclear weapons, it is integral to NATO’s nuclear policy and hosts American atomic bombs on its soil. As the reliability of American nuclear protection is increasingly questioned, the Netherlands faces growing pressure to establish its own nuclear capabilities. The country is home to significant nuclear expertise, particularly through institutions like Urenco, a global leader in uranium enrichment. However, despite this technological foundation, the Netherlands faces a major challenge: developing nuclear weapons isn’t just about having the right materials. The country would also need to invest heavily in delivery systems and weapons technology, areas in which it currently lacks the capacity. This raises a difficult question—should the Netherlands pursue a nuclear program on its own, or is it more strategically sound to collaborate with its European neighbors?
The Netherlands’ nuclear potential and challenges
The Netherlands is in a strong position technologically to develop nuclear capabilities, thanks to its expertise in uranium enrichment. Urenco, with its facilities in Almelo, plays a pivotal role in the global nuclear fuel market, which could provide the Netherlands with the resources needed to pursue a nuclear program. Additionally, Dutch universities and research institutes are world-renowned for their work in nuclear science, supplying a steady stream of experts who could contribute to such a program. However, while the Netherlands has the scientific foundation to build a nuclear weapon, its lack of delivery systems—such as missiles and aircraft capable of carrying nuclear warheads—poses a significant barrier.
The development of these systems would require substantial investments of time and money. And even if the Netherlands were to develop its own nuclear weapons, the country would still be bound by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), complicating the legal and diplomatic landscape. The Netherlands would also face the challenge of balancing its nuclear ambitions with its obligations to NATO and international treaties. In short, while the Netherlands has the potential to go nuclear, doing so independently would be a monumental undertaking.
Collaborating with European partners: A smarter choice for the Netherlands
Given the complexity and expense of developing an independent nuclear program, cooperation with other European nations may be the most logical path for the Netherlands. Countries like Sweden, with its advanced defense industry, could play a key role in developing delivery systems for nuclear weapons. A regional nuclear partnership could help mitigate the financial and logistical challenges of building an independent program while offering the Netherlands the security it seeks.
Such a collaboration would also enhance Europe’s collective defense capabilities, creating a more unified response to external threats. Rather than each country trying to go it alone, sharing resources, expertise, and risk could result in a stronger, more cohesive European defense structure. This would be a new type of European cooperation—one that transcends NATO and directly addresses the unique security challenges facing the continent today.
Should Europe go nuclear?
The question of whether the Netherlands, or any European country, should pursue nuclear weapons is a complex one. Technically, the Netherlands has the infrastructure and expertise to develop its own capabilities, but the associated challenges are enormous. The lack of delivery systems and the need for significant investments in technology and infrastructure make a fully independent nuclear strategy difficult to implement in the short term.
In light of these challenges, cooperation with other European nations seems like a more viable and strategic option. Rather than taking on the risks and costs of a solitary nuclear program, the Netherlands could benefit from collaboration with its European neighbors, thereby strengthening both its own security and the region’s overall defense capabilities. This collaborative approach would allow Europe to navigate the increasingly unstable global security environment while avoiding the pitfalls of nuclear proliferation. For the Netherlands, and for Europe as a whole, this may be the safest and most sensible path forward.